Forex Trader Mistakes

If you really want to avoid the disasters you have read about then take my advice; don’t make these mistakes.

So let’s get’s started…

MISTAKE # 10

PAPER TRADING TOO LONG

Paper trading is hypothetical trading. If you have never traded anything before, you will probably do some paper trading. The benefit of paper trading is that it will help the new trader become acquainted with the basics of interfacing with the markets. This is often a “demo” account with a broker or clearing firm that provides real-time market data but provides a hypothetical balance. You are allowed to buy and sell as much as you want, just like in a “live” or “real” account. Your hypothetical gains and losses are accrued against your hypothetical account balance over time. As time goes on, most traders find that they can gain quite a surprising amount of paper-profits in a very short period of time. These traders are now completely convinced that they can easily duplicate those hypothetical results in real time with real money. They open their real trading account and POW! Within about three to four weeks they are down usually more than 50% of their equity. This is not my opinion—this is actual fact. Ask any broker in the industry what happens to “paper-traders” who open a real account. The ratio of “paper-traders” to “winning traders” is about one in ninety.

Why does this happen?

Because there was never any real risk to the trader.

Let me illustrate by telling you a story:

I am a private pilot. I soloed on my 17^{th birthday. In 1979 I was an Air Force academy appointee. I have flown a T-38 Jet fighter in extreme conditions. Just knowing that, I think most people would agree that I probably have a certain amount of experience flying airplanes.}

played Microsoft Flight Simulator (ever). I do the real thing. BIG DIFFERENCE between the two as you can see.

Do you see the point I’m getting at? PRETENDING to do something is never the same as actually doing it. Yes, it is helpful up to a certain point to simulate certain things but that can only take you so far. In the case of air-to-air combat, PRETENDING to be a fighter pilot will likely get you killed if you ACTUALLY go up against a trained fighter pilot. In fact, the US Army Air Corps learned this the hard way back in WWI. They sent young men into combat with oftentimes less than 10 hours of actual flying time. Imagine how fast those men were killed when they went man-to-man with Richthofen, Boelke and Immelmann. Everyone concluded flying was “dangerous” when in fact it was the lack of training that was “dangerous”

I’m not trying to impress you with my flying skills. I’m trying to impress on you that paper-trading is exactly like playing Microsoft Flight Simulator. It is pretending to be something you are not while convincing you that you know what you are doing. Paper trading hides from you the need for real skills. Paper-trading will get you killed because when you go up against real traders with real money it’s not a game anymore. If you make the wrong move you lose equity. There is no “do over” button. If you stall your F-16 in the simulator, you get another chance; stall your F-16 in combat and you die. Lose money in your paper-trading account; just sign up for another trial account. Lose money in your real account and you go home broke.

Paper-trading is a waste of time because paper-trading will never give you the real skills you need to trade. All paper-trading can do is help you learn how to use the functions of your trading platform. In fact, that is a good thing. But once you learn the functions of your platform and your account is ready to trade, everything you learned paper-trading goes out the window because NOW IT IS DO OR DIE. There are no second chances.

Don’t make mistake #1; don’t think you know what you are doing because you pretended to trade without taking any real risk.

HOW TO MAKE THIS MISTAKE WORSE: Continue paper-trading for more than 30 days and/or go back to paper-trading if you have lost money in your first real account.

SOLUTION: Open the absolute smallest account your broker will allow and trade for 90 days the absolute smallest size possible. If you are ahead, increase your equity size and your trade size by a factor of 20%. If you are losing, stay with the real thing; it’s the only way to learn.

MISTAKE # 9

NOT HAVING A TRADING PLAN

Suppose you called your 401K manager this afternoon. Suppose you asked him “What is your plan for the next six months?” Suppose he told you “Oh—whatever. I just try to get on the right side and if I don’t I just get out”

How long would that guy be managing your retirement money if you had any say in the matter?

Many traders take the same attitude with their daily work habit and many don’t even know they do it. Not having a clear and concise plan for your daily trading presence is a serious mistake and you need to address it. The best way to describe a sound plan is to let you read one from a

professional full-time trader. This is an actual trade plan form a friend of mine who is an E-mini trader:

2006 Trading Plan

My goal is to earn 100% on my trading equity before the end of the year. To maintain my focus I will set a near term goal every quarter to be at a 25% gain and I will plot my equity daily. If I reach my quarterly goal ahead of the last trading day of the quarter I will take a two-day break. I will hold any open positions that are at a profit but any open trade losses I will close at that point before I take a break.

If my open trade gains continue into the new quarter I will add to those winning positions by a factor of 25%. I will move my protective stops up to reduce my exposure on the entire position.

If I am behind on my trade goal for the quarter, I will take a five-day break. I will re-evaluate my trade system and ask the question: “Has my market quality changed to something my system is not able to perform at best?”

During the year I will not trade more than three markets. I have learned I cannot focus well on more than three markets at a time.

If I have more than four losing trades in a row in any of my three markets I will take a trading break for five days. Again, I will leave open position winners alone in the other markets but close all losing positions. I will again roll protective stops to reduce my risk.

When I take a trading break, I will enter resting limit orders in the open trade winners to take the objective profit should I be unavailable and the market gets to those levels during my break.

If I am ahead of my plan for the year at any point I will take a break. I will take 30% of the new equity out of my account and place that into a secure place. If I am behind I will not add equity under any circumstances. If I reach a 40% drawdown from my high equity I will quit for the year.

I will record my daily trade activity in my trading log and review this weekly. I will know my ratios and results; I will look to improve them by 5% each week.

I will trade only from the bull side because my analysis tells me that all three of the markets I have selected have more than a year of solid bullish fundamentals. I will learn how to use options this year because I see from last year I could have protected more trades if I had a solid grasp of when to use options and when not to. I will invest two-hours a week on option knowledge.

My son is leaving for Europe in May. I will not trade the week before he leaves or the week after. I plan to join him in the fall for Oktoberfest for one week and will not trade the three days before I leave or when I get back. I know I suffer from jet-lag so the week after I am back I am not at my best. I have blocked out these times on my trade calendar so I will not be tempted to trade anyway.

If you read between the lines you will notice that his trade plan included all the things that were in his control—NOT things outside of his control; like the markets. If you want to get serious about writing a solid trading plan pick up a copy of my first book Trading Rules That Work: the 28 essential lessons every trader must master (Wiley & Sons Publishing, October 2006). I also teach about trading plans in my daily broadcasts and in my Psychology of Trading course. Please see my website for details.

HOW TO MAKE THIS MISTAKE WORSE: Base your trading plan on hypothetical profits or on how well you did paper-trading, Ignore your personal emotional needs when compiling a plan, Ignore your family while making a plan, keep thinking you can trade everyday or all the time, average your potential over a period of time and think results will equal a daily amount.

SOLUTION: Ask a professional trader to show you his daily/weekly/monthly or annual trading plan. Ask yourself if you can make a plan that addresses similar things. If the professional you have selected can’t show you or won’t show you his plan then ignore what he has to say. If he isn’t using a plan then he is likely unable to assist you in building wealth. There are resources for writing trade plans on my site; please use them.

MISTAKE # 8

TRADING TOO LARGE FOR YOUR ACCOUNT

The fastest way to go broke is to bet it all—all the time. Most traders don’t learn this lesson until they have had at least one blow-out; by that I mean they have lost all their equity quickly and have had to start over.

For some reason, there is a tendency for traders of all age and experience levels to trade too large for the actual cash in their account. This is a symptom of a larger problem and unless you are willing to consider that you personally might have this problem already you most likely will be trading too large for your account right now today.

What is this larger problem?

GREED, BABY—GREED

It is unrealistic for you to believe you are going to make a killing on THIS ONE TRADE RIGHT NOW. Sure, you might be on the right side of a large move but that will take time and evidence to see. For this moment, any trade you have on has the potential to run the other way against you and if you are trading too large, your potential to lose a lot on only a few trades is huge. No matter your age, education, skill or experience level you are not going to make 100% winning trades. Therefore a certain percentage of your trades will simply not work. Those trades cannot be so large that you lose a significant portion of your equity in the process.

To beat the greed habit you need to make a few changes to both your equity management and more importantly to your thinking.

First, trading is a business. You need to treat it like one. There are certain things every business needs to run effectively and the first thing is liquidity. Simply put, if you run out of cash to play you can’t remain open.

Second, if you had a reasonable plan in place already then it is a good guess that your plan calls for only a reasonable amount of percent gain on your equity regularly. If you were to use some basic mathematics while creating a sound trading approach one of the things you would be looking for was a realistic “risk-to-reward” ratio. That means for every dollar you lose you expect to make a certain number of dollars and out of every 100 trades a certain percent will be winners and some will be losers.

If you put this all together and asked the “what-if?” questions you get this base-line number that statistically will be a winning set of results:

42% winning trades out of 100 taken

Two dollars out for every dollar you give back

This is not my opinion, this is the Probability of Ruin Matrix and you can research it yourself if you have time. Of course, if you have higher percentages of winners and take more out on those winners you make money a lot faster but the point is if your results are at least this good consistently you are on your way to success. I teach more about that in Trading Rules that Work and in my Psychology of Trading course.

It’s great to be on the high side of the matrix but most of us didn’t start there and that is why you have to TRADE SMALL at first. To protect yourself from being greedy about your trading and to help you stay focused on long-term success it is important to make your trade size small enough so that it won’t leave you in a position of not being able to play at all should you have a string of losses all at once. I found that limiting your risk/reward ratio to a factor of about 1.5% on any one trade is a great way to stay focused and not get greedy.

This means that for any one trade you take, no matter how you think of the trade or how certain you are of a win; you will not risk more than 1.5% of your account balance at any one time. This means that if you are trading so that your average loss is 3-5% of your account balance at any one time—you are trading TWO to THREE TIMES TOO LARGE for your account size. In that case, the Probability of Ruin Matrix will work against you and you will likely run out of capital before you make money with your approach.

If you are the greedy trader right now and you are guilty of making this mistake; If this means you have to drop your trading size down a few notches then you had better call your broker today and fix it—because if you don’t you are an accident waiting to happen. It only takes making this mistake THREE TIMES IN A ROW to drop your account balance 15% or more in a heartbeat; especially if you are day trading!

HOW TO MAKE THIS MISTAKE WORSE: Convince yourself you are so good at trading that this couldn’t possibly happen to you, convince yourself that your analysis is good enough to help you find 80-90% winning trades all the time, trade without a stop-loss order “just this once”, double-up on the next trade after taking a large loss.

SOLUTION: Immediately reduce your account balance; take 20-30% of your cash home. Trade position sizes that are no more than 300% as valuable as your account balance. In other words, if your account size is $10,000, don’t trade anything that has a total contract value larger than around $30,000. If that means trading mini’s instead of big-board you had better do it.

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We hope you’ve enjoyed the first few mistakes that traders make, and that it opens up your eyes to the Forex markets a little more! This is a mini version of our TOP 10, which we like to spread around for your overall knowledgebase, and to show you the quality you get with the Forex Brotherhood. Once you become a member with us, you get the rest of this guide, two daily live webinars/broadcasts, two daily hot reports, an automatic EA, a VIP forum to mingle at, and obviously a learning curve that will be shortened 10 fold with our curriculum and premiums.

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Good luck and Good Trading